The World Could Lose Half of all Farms by 2100
A new study says that half of all farms globally will disappear by the end of the century, while the average size of existing farms will double. Here’s why that’s a problem.
By Emily Baron Cadloff
Modern Farmer
Jul 27, 2023
Excerpt:
A study from researchers at the University of Colorado, Boulder predicts that the number of farms worldwide will significantly shrink by the end of this century, posing problems in our food system.
Published in the journal Nature Sustainability this spring, the study created a model of farms worldwide to look at past patterns and predict their effects into the future. Beginning with global farm numbers from 1969, researchers modeled their evolution into 2100.
According to their current trajectories, the number of farms is predicted to drop to just 272 million by the end of this century from 616 million in 2020.
At the same time, the average farm size is predicted to double. The study shows that some areas, including Europe and North America, will see a relatively steady decline in farm numbers, while other areas, including Latin America and North Africa, will go from a period of farm creation to one of consolidation by mid-century.
Lead researcher Zia Mehrabi, a professor of environmental studies, used data from the UN Food and Agricultural Organization to look at agricultural areas, economic output and population size of more than 180 countries.
One of the main reasons Mehrabi found for the decline is economic growth. As a country’s economy gets stronger, Mehrabi found, more people leave rural areas for urban ones, with fewer folks able to tend to rural farmland. That could have devastating effects on our food supply.
