The latest USDA report on the 2022/23 U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook has shown no significant change from last month. However, the global outlook for wheat is forecast to have slightly smaller supplies, increased trade and consumption, and lower ending stocks. On the other hand, the global coarse grain production for 2022/23 is expected to decrease by 3.2 million tons to 1,439.6 million.
Regarding rice, the outlook for the U.S. in 2022/23 remains unchanged regarding supplies and domestic use, but exports are expected to decrease, leading to higher ending stocks. Total rice exports are reduced by 3.0 million cwt to 59.0 million due to the sluggish pace of export sales and shipments. However, the season-average farm price for all rice remains unchanged at $19.40 per cwt with both the long and medium- and short-grain prices also unchanged.
Meanwhile, the U.S. soybean oil exports are forecast to be reduced by 200 million pounds, with the historical low of 500 million likely due to relatively strong domestic demand for soybean oil limiting export competitiveness. On the other hand, sugar production in the U.S. is expected to increase due to an increase in sucrose recovery from the 2022 sugarbeet crop. However, lower expected sugar imports offset this increase. In contrast, sugar production in Mexico is predicted to be reduced by 415,000 metric tons (MT) to 5,485,000.
Lastly, the report includes livestock, poultry, and dairy updates. The estimates for red meat, poultry, and egg supply and use in 2022 have been adjusted to reflect revisions to slaughter and production data. The beef production forecast for 2023 has been raised from last month, and turkey exports are expected to be lower in the first half of 2023 due to weaker demand in key markets. The milk supply and use estimates for 2022 have also been adjusted to reflect revisions to estimates of milk production and stocks. The global 2022/23 cotton supply and demand forecasts include lower consumption and trade and higher production and stocks.
Read the complete USDA report here.
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