Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Blast Spread and Global Wheat Production

Key Insights:

• Wheat Blast Threat: Diego et al. (2024) examine the expansion of wheat blast, a significant fungal disease caused by Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype Triticum, since its emergence in Brazil in the 1980s, highlighting its potential to spread in tropical regions under climate change.
• Model Integration for Global Estimates: The study integrates a wheat crop simulation model with a newly developed blast model to provide quantitative estimates of global wheat blast vulnerability under current and projected climate scenarios.
• Vulnerability Under Current Climate: Currently, 6.4 million hectares of arable land are identified as potentially vulnerable to wheat blast, posing a threat to wheat production areas.
• Future Climate Projections: Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, indicating a more humid and warmer future climate, the area susceptible to wheat blast will likely increase, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. This could reduce global wheat production by 69 million tons per year, a 13% decrease by mid-century.

The Growing Threat of Wheat Blast in a Changing Climate

Diego and colleagues’ research underscores the critical challenge posed by wheat blast in the context of global food security and agricultural sustainability. The study’s findings elucidate the potential geographical expansion of this disease, exacerbated by climate change, particularly highlighting the vulnerability of tropical regions.

Integrating Models for Comprehensive Analysis

By coupling a wheat crop simulation model with a wheat blast model, the researchers offer a pioneering approach to quantifying the vulnerability of global wheat production to this pathogen under varying climatic conditions. This methodological innovation provides a foundation for assessing the impacts of climate change on crop diseases more broadly.

Implications for Global Wheat Production

The projected increase in areas suitable for the infection under future climate scenarios signals a pressing need for adaptive strategies in agriculture to mitigate the potential reduction in global wheat production. “A more humid and warmer climate in the future is likely to increase the area suitable for the infection,” the authors note, emphasizing the urgency of addressing this threat to maintain food security.

Read the complete study here.